In March 2023, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) published their 6th Assessment Report (AR6). The report culminates 8 years of study from the world's most authoritative scientific body on climate change. The 8,000 page text gathers insights from 234 scientists on the physical science of climate change, 270 scientists on impacts, adaptation and vulnerability to climate change, and 278 scientists on climate change mitigation. It is therefore fair to say that this report provides the most comprehensive, indepth and accurate scientific assessment of climate change. 

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The consequences of rising GHG (Greenhouse Gas) emissions are clear from across the text, as well as the destruction of homes, communities and livelihoods that are guaranteed to follow in the path of our climate devastation. It is also clear, however, that it is not too late to change course, take action and limit the harm caused by our mistakes. The report details not just options currently available to us but also ones that are cost-effective and scalable. 

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We took a look at the World Resources Institute’s 10 big findings from the IPCC AR6 report, and we thought it was worth sharing what we learned. 

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1. “Human-induced global warming of 1.1 degrees C has spurred changes to the Earth’s climate that are unprecedented in recent human history”

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With a 1.1 degrees C (2 degrees F) global temperature rise, we're witnessing unparalleled climate shifts globally, including rising sea levels and more frequent extreme weather events. Each additional 0.5 degree C (0.9 degrees F) increase escalates the occurrence and severity of heatwaves, heavy rainfall, and regional droughts. As temperatures continue to rise, the risk of critical climate tipping points, such as permafrost thaw and extensive forest loss, escalates, potentially leading to irreversible transformations. For instance, in the case of 2 degrees C (3.6 degrees F) to 3 degrees C (5.4 degrees F) of warming, there's a significant concern about substantial, millennia-spanning melting of the West Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets, resulting in a noteworthy rise in sea levels.

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2. “Climate impacts on people and ecosystems are more widespread and severe than expected, and future risks will escalate rapidly with every fraction of a degree of warming”

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The AR6, characterised as a harsh critique of climate governance by UN Secretary-General António Guterres, delivers alarming conclusions beyond prior expectations. Presently, nearly half of the global population confronts severe water scarcity annually, while rising temperatures facilitate the spread of diseases like malaria and West Nile virus. Agricultural productivity in Africa has fallen by a third since 1961, and extreme floods displace over 20 million people annually since 2008. Higher temperatures will amplify these threats, even as efforts to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees C encounter challenges. Surpassing this threshold, even temporarily, leads to severe, often irreversible impacts, making it crucial to minimise both the magnitude and duration of exceeding 1.5 degrees C. Rapid greenhouse gas emissions reduction remains paramount, regardless of temperature limits reached by century's end.

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3. “Adaptation measures can effectively build resilience, but more finance is needed to scale solutions”

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Climate policies in about 170 countries acknowledge adaptation, but many haven't progressed beyond planning. Most resilience efforts are small-scale, reactive, and narrowly focused, addressing immediate or near-term risks. This adaptation gap largely results from limited funding. Developing countries need $127 billion yearly by 2030 and $295 billion by 2050 for climate adaptation, yet only received $23 billion to $46 billion between 2017 and 2018, accounting for just 4% to 8% of tracked climate finance.

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However, the IPCC provides hope by suggesting that with sufficient support, existing adaptation solutions can enhance resilience to climate risks while promoting sustainable development. Ecosystem-based adaptation, for instance, can simultaneously aid communities in adapting and delivering broader benefits, including biodiversity preservation, improved health, food security, economic gains, and carbon sequestration. Many of these measures can be implemented cost-effectively today, with effective collaboration with Indigenous Peoples and local communities essential for success, along with factoring in future temperature rise impacts on ecosystems.

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4. “Some climate impacts are already so severe they cannot be adapted to, leading to losses and damages”

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Globally, vulnerable communities and ecosystems are already grappling with the challenges of adapting to climate change impacts. Some face "soft" adaptation limits due to obstacles like insufficient funding or political constraints, hindering the implementation of effective measures. In contrast, others encounter "hard" limits where existing strategies cannot fully prevent losses and damages from the frequent and severe climate impacts resulting from 1.1 degrees C (2 degrees F) of global warming. For instance, coastal communities witness coral reef decline and forced relocations due to rising sea levels. Whether dealing with soft or hard limits, the consequences for vulnerable populations are often irreversible and devastating, expected to worsen as temperatures rise. Urgent action is vital to address these issues. COP27 marked a significant milestone as countries agreed to establish funding mechanisms for loss and damage, yet the details will determine the adequacy and accessibility of financial assistance for affected communities.

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5. “Global GHG emissions peak before 2025 in 1.5 degrees C-aligned pathways”

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The IPCC cautions that there's a greater than 50% probability of global temperatures reaching or exceeding 1.5 degrees C (2.7 degrees F) between 2021 and 2040, and a high-emissions scenario could push this limit earlier, between 2018 and 2037. Under such conditions, temperatures might rise substantially to 3.3 degrees C to 5.7 degrees C (5.9 degrees F to 10.3 degrees F) by 2100, surpassing levels seen over 3 million years ago. To achieve the 1.5 degrees C target, immediate and profound reductions in greenhouse gas emissions are imperative, with emissions peaking by no later than 2025 and decreasing by 43% by 2030 and 60% by 2035 compared to 2019 levels. Despite some positive developments, global progress remains inadequate, with emissions steadily climbing over the past decade, reaching 59 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (GtCO2e) in 2019, marking a 12% increase since 2010 and a 54% surge since 1990. Even if countries fulfill their climate commitments, these efforts fall short, resulting in only a 7% reduction in emissions from 2019 levels by 2030, far from the necessary 43% reduction to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 degrees C. 

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6. “The world must rapidly shift away from burning fossil fuels — the number one cause of the climate crisis”

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In pathways targeting a 1.5 degrees C (2.7 degrees F) limit on warming with minimal or no overshoot, only 510 GtCO2 emissions are permissible before reaching net zero by the early 2050s. However, the anticipated carbon dioxide emissions from existing and planned fossil fuel infrastructure alone could surpass this limit by 340 GtCO2, totaling 850 GtCO2. To prevent this outcome, a combination of strategies is crucial, including the retirement of current fossil fuel infrastructure, cancellation of new projects, retrofitting fossil-fueled power plants with carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies, and the widespread adoption of cost-competitive renewable energy sources like solar and wind. In these 1.5 degrees C pathways, global coal use drops by 95% by 2050, oil declines by roughly 60%, and gas diminishes by about 45%, assuming significant use of abatement technologies like CCS. Without these technologies, the reductions become even more substantial, effectively phasing out global coal use by 2050. Notably, despite coal-fired power plant retirements in Europe and the United States, certain multilateral development banks continue to invest in new coal capacity, posing a risk of stranding assets worth trillions of dollars.

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7. “We also need urgent, systemwide transformations to secure a net-zero, climate-resilient future”

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To combat the climate crisis, deep cuts in greenhouse gas emissions are needed across all sectors, not just fossil fuels. Approximately 80% of global emissions come from power generation, buildings, industry, and transport, while the rest is attributed to agriculture, forestry, and land use. Solutions involve urban planning to reduce travel, expanded public and non-motorized transport, and promoting electric vehicles. Policy measures such as subsidising clean technologies and taxing high-emission ones can hasten these transitions, with numerous co-benefits like reduced air pollution and traffic-related accidents. Adaptation efforts must be transformative, spanning sectors and regions equitably, and often align with mitigation strategies, such as climate-smart agriculture practices that enhance resilience and mitigation simultaneously.

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8. “Carbon removal is now essential to limit global temperature rise to 1.5 degrees C”

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To achieve global climate goals, deep decarbonization and resilience-building efforts alone won't suffice, as the IPCC emphasises the necessity of carbon removal in all pathways limiting warming to 1.5 degrees C (2.7 degrees F), whether with minimal or no overshoot. These approaches encompass natural solutions like carbon sequestration in trees and soil, as well as emerging technologies that directly extract carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. The required amount of carbon removal hinges on the pace of greenhouse gas emissions reductions in other sectors and the extent to which climate targets are exceeded, estimating between 5 GtCO2 to 16 GtCO2 per year by mid-century. Each carbon removal method has its merits and drawbacks; for example, reforestation offers a cost-effective solution with community benefits but faces risks from disturbances like wildfires, while technologies like bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) could be more permanent but might pose food security concerns. Effectively deploying these solutions demands a thorough understanding of their unique benefits, costs, and risks, emphasising responsible research and development.

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9. “Climate finance for both mitigation and adaptation must increase dramatically this decade”

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The IPCC underscores a significant disparity in public and private financial flows, with more funds directed towards fossil fuels than climate mitigation and adaptation efforts. Despite a 60% increase in annual climate finance since the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report, substantial additional funding is essential to meet global climate goals. This gap is most pronounced in developing nations, particularly those grappling with debt, poor credit ratings, and COVID-19-related economic challenges. In regions like Southeast Asia, the Pacific, Africa, and the Middle East, mitigation investments must increase substantially by 2030 to keep warming below 2 degrees C. Notably, the finance shortfall is most acute in agriculture, forestry, and land use sectors. Adaptation and loss and damage financing requirements are also set to rise significantly, particularly in developing countries, yet current funds fall short of estimated needs, underscoring the urgency of bridging this gap.

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10. “Climate change — as well as our collective efforts to adapt to and mitigate it — will exacerbate inequity should we fail to ensure a just transition”

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Households in the top 10% income bracket, including a substantial portion in developed nations, are responsible for emitting over 45% of global greenhouse gases, while those in the bottom 50% income group contribute no more than 15%. Paradoxically, climate change's severe impacts disproportionately affect impoverished and historically marginalised communities. Currently, between 3.3 billion and 3.6 billion people reside in nations highly vulnerable to climate effects, primarily concentrated in regions like the Arctic, Central and South America, Small Island Developing states, South Asia, and much of sub-Saharan Africa. These regions face a convergence of climate hazards, pre-existing inequalities, and developmental challenges that heighten their susceptibility to climate-related crises. Tragically, mortality rates from climate-related events are significantly higher in highly vulnerable nations compared to those with lower vulnerability. Efforts to mitigate climate change can also inadvertently exacerbate inequities, such as the displacement of coal industry workers or disruptions to local economies when retiring coal-fired power plants. Policymakers must adopt measures that facilitate a just transition toward a net-zero-emissions, climate-resilient future, including reconfiguring social protection programs, designing equitable mitigation strategies, and implementing inclusive decision-making processes to ensure that vulnerable communities are not left behind in the global transition toward sustainability.

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The IPCC's 6th Assessment Report provides a comprehensive scientific evaluation of climate change. It highlights the severe consequences of rising greenhouse gas emissions, including unprecedented climate shifts. Urgent action is required to bridge climate finance gaps, reduce emissions, and transition from fossil fuels. A just transition that addresses inequalities is crucial. The choices made in the coming years will determine our planet's fate, demanding global cooperation and decisive action against climate change.

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